HOW I SEE IT: Math doesn’t add up on State Theatre

A short while back I had published in this newspaper my concerns regarding the nonsensical loan being made to the State Theatre Foundation for continued restoration.

After that letter, I forwarded to all of our Town Council members and our mayor a more in-depth explanation of my concerns. As a result, I have received one response from our mayor and several responses from Councilman Chris Snider.

The mayor abruptly informed me that my “facts and assumptions” were wrong, as I did not have all of the details. He advised me that this matter did not need to be “reconsidered,” as he and the council were reviewing the matter currently.

Mr. Snider was concerned with my assertion that it could take better than 30 years to repay this loan. I sent him an amortization schedule proving that a loan of $1.5 million at 6-percent interest over 30 years would make for a $9,000-per-month loan payment. Add insurance and taxes on top of that.

Mr. Snider advised me that should the State Theatre sell out all 533 seats at a price of $50 apiece, the revenue for that show would be $26,650.

Here is the problem with his math: The theater will not sell every seat for $50, and will in fact have many free and discounted seats to whatever performance is scheduled. Deduct from that revenue the cost of the performers. That will vary from a low of $70,000 to a high of many thousands of dollars. Some touring companies prefer to work on a split-of-the-ticket revenue each night. There is no way to calculate that amount at this time.

Plug in the huge amount of money that will need to be spent to advertise the event, plus the staff payroll. Now add in the day-to-day operating costs. As I told the mayor and Town Council, this project cannot secure private financing because there is never going to be a “return on investment.”

Figure that a full house of 533 patrons will show up and that three people each share a car. That means there will be 177 cars that will have nowhere to park downtown. Couple this with a weekend night, and add the cars that patronize Regal Cinemas. Who will pay for the extra police patrols that will be necessary to enforce traffic and parking?

You guessed it: you and me!

There are performing arts centers in Manassas, Warrenton, Fredericksburg and Charlottesville that are suffering hardships due to the economy. This is not a “Field of Dreams” moment for Culpeper. Why are we not allowed to vote on this through a referendum or ballot initiative? That is the only fair way for all citizens to be heard.