GOP poised for midterm gains? Ask Sabato’s ‘Crystal Ball’

Republicans could make a successful grab for U.S. Rep. Tom Perriello’s 5th District seat and take up to another 29 seats from Democrats in the 2010 U.S. House of Representatives election, according to researchers at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

Analysts for “Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball” say Republicans could win 20 to 30 seats in the House, taking back a large chunk of Democratic gains in the 2008 House elections. That’s the election in which Ivy resident Perriello beat then-incumbent Republi-can Virgil H. Goode Jr.

Researchers at the Crystal Ball spent more than a year reviewing the population profiles and political histories of the 435 House districts, all of which are up for election. In 2006, the last midterm election, the researchers predicted Democrats would gain 29 seats, which they did.

Isaac Wood, House race editor of the Crystal Ball, noted that the swing from one party to another during midterm elections is normal. Similar swings brought the Republicans to power in the 1990s and the Democrats to power in the past decade.

“It’s not a coincidence,” he said “House elections, in general, are very dependent on the popularity of the parties and of the president, and the party that controls the presidency almost always loses seats in the House during a midterm election.”

While the researchers expect 20 to 30 seats to fall to Republicans, they say much will depend on which candidates decide to run.

“There’s another year to wait and things could change in any of the districts,” Wood said. “We’ll keep an eye on what’s going on and release updates as the elections come closer.”

Wood said the 2010 race for the 5th District is considered a tossup because of the makeup of the district, its history and the number of strong candidates that could announce.

“The 5th District is traditionally Republican. In the 2008 presidential election John McCain beat President Obama and, if you go back to 2004, George Bush won the district with 56 percent [of votes].”

Wood noted that much of the 5th District, which includes Charlottesville but stretches toward Danville and the North Carolina line, has a different economic and political viewpoint than does Charlottesville.

“People in Danville have a whole different economic reality and the political outlook is completely different,” Wood said. “It may be difficult for some people to believe but Charlottesville is the abnormality in the district.”

Goode, of Rocky Mount, served 12 years in the House, first being elected as a conservative Democrat and later becoming an independent before turning Republican. Perriello beat him in a close race that required a recount and left the outcome in doubt for more than a month.

Goode has declared that he will not run in 2010. Three Republicans have announced that they will, including Feda Kidd Morton, a Fluvanna County teacher, and Laurence Verga, an Ivy-area real estate investor.

Republican candidate Bradley Rees, of Lynchburg, recently was convicted of possessing a concealed weapon when police found two handguns in his car that were not in open view. He plans to continue his campaign.

Wood said there are Republicans considered strong candidates who have not announced their intentions, including state Sen. Robert Hurt, R-Pittsylvania.

“Considering the district’s voting history, if Hurt were to run, it would be a difficult match up,” he said.