Delegate races heating up across state

The major political parties are competing for 58 seats this fall in the House of Delegates, an increase from recent election cycles.

An unofficial tally by the Virginia Public Access Project shows 68 of the 100 seats will be contested, up from 41 in 2007 and 49 in 2005. But 10 of this year’s contests involve a major-party candidate running against an independent, including one in Culpeper.

The State Board of Elections will announce the official candidacies Wednesday.

In the state’s 30th District, Del. Ed Scott, 43, a Republican from Madison, is running again to represent Culpeper, Madison and Orange counties. He has held the seat since 2004, beating two GOP challengers in his first primary election with 53 percent of the vote.

In 2003 — Scott’s first general election — independent W.C. Thompson of Culpeper earned 14 percent of the vote. Scott’s closest race came in the ’05 primary when Culpeper pastor Mark Jarvis, a staunch conservative, earned 35 percent. Scott ran unopposed in 2007.

Local Democrats have never put forth a candidate against Scott, but he will be opposed again in this year’s election — this time by another independent. Culpeper’s Matt Carson, a businessman originally from Fauquier County, recently announced his bid to compete for the seat in the statehouse and filed the necessary paperwork with the local registrar.

Republicans, who hold 53 seats in the House to the Democrats’ 45, were more active in recruiting candidates for the fall election. The two independent incumbents in the House usually vote with Republicans, so Democrats need to pick up six seats to gain a majority.

Nine Democrats and 29 Republicans are unopposed.

Paul Nardo, administrative aide to Speaker of the House William J. Howell, R-Stafford, said the GOP had an aggressive recruiting program this year. A Republican nominee will be on the ballot in 84 of 100 races this fall, he said. That is 20 more than two years ago, he added.

In addition, he said, frustrations with what is going on in Washington under the Obama administration attracted Republican candidates, particularly in Democrat-friendly northern Virginia. Close special-election races there also encouraged the GOP, Nardo said.

Del. Kenneth R. Plum, D-Fairfax, said that because resources are tight, the Democrats chose to focus on a fewer number of winnable seats rather than try a shotgun approach.

Plum, chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, is one of the northern Virginia Democrats being challenged.

“I tell my people that this will work to our advantage because it will help us raise money,” he said.

In the Richmond area, Republican Dels. G. Manoli Loupassi, James P. Massie III, M. Kirkland Cox and Riley E. Ingram are unopposed.

Despite the GOP’s recruiting success, the winners will be determined by the governor’s race, said Larry J. Sabato, a University of Virginia political analyst.

If Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell does well, the GOP will hold the House, Sabato said. If Democrat R. Creigh Deeds wins handily, the Democrats could win the House.