Contested races for Delegates seats increase

The major political parties are competing for 58 House of Delegates seats this fall — an increase from recent election cycles.

An unofficial tally by the Virginia Public Access Project shows 68 of the 100 seats will be contested, up from 41 in 2007 and 49 in 2005. But 10 of this year's contests involve a major-party candidate running against an independent. Independents generally have little chance of beating a major-party incumbent.

The State Board of Elections will announce the official candidacies Wednesday.

In the state's 30th District, Del. Ed Scott, R-Madison, is running again to represent the people of Culpeper, Madison and Orange counties. He has held the seat since 2004, consisently beating out a string of candidates from his own party.

Scott will be opposed again in this year's election, but by an independent. Matt Carson, a small businessman originally from Fauquier County, recently announced his bid to compete for the seat in the statehouse and filed the necessary paperwork with the local registrar to do so.

Republicans, who hold 53 seats in the House to the Democrats' 45, were more active in recruiting candidates for the fall election. The two independent incumbents in the House usually vote with Republicans, so Democrats need to win six seats to gain a majority.

Nine Democrats and 29 Republicans are unopposed.

Paul Nardo, administrative aide to Republican Speaker of the House William J. Howell, R-Stafford, said the GOP had an aggressive recruiting program this year. A Republican nominee will be on the ballot in 84 of 100 races this fall, he said. That is 20 more than two years ago, he added.

In addition, he said, frustrations with what is going on in Washington under the Obama administration attracted Republican candidates, particularly in Northern Virginia. Close special-election races in Northern Virginia also encouraged the Republicans, Nardo said.

Northern Virginia is considered the most Democrat-friendly area of the state. Nevertheless, Republicans are contesting 15 of the 17 Fairfax County seats, Nardo said.

Del. Kenneth R. Plum, D-Fairfax, said that because resources are tight, the Democrats chose to focus on a fewer number of winnable seats rather than try a shotgun approach.

Plum, who is chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, is one of the Northern Virginia Democrats being challenged.

"I tell my people that this will work to our advantage because it will help us raise money," he said.

In the Richmond area, Dels. G. Manoli Loupassi, R-Richmond, James P. Massie III, R-Henrico, M. Kirkland Cox, R-Colonial Heights, and Riley E. Ingram, R-Hopewell, are unopposed.

Despite the GOP's recruiting success, the winners will be determined by the governor's race, said Larry J. Sabato, a University of Virginia political analyst.

If Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell does well, the GOP will hold the House, Sabato said. If Democrat R. Creigh Deeds wins handily, the Democrats could win the House, he said.