Home sales spike in Q4

Compared to last year, the local housing market appears to be on the rebound — albeit gradually.

Figures released Monday by the Virginia Association of Realtors showed fourth-quarter home sales in the greater Piedmont increased 19 percent in 2009 over 2008.

In the fourth quarter of 2009, 457 homes sold in Culpeper, Fauquier, Madison, Orange, Rappahannock and part of Warren counties, compared to 384 in 2008. The median price of homes, however, continued to fall in the same time period — from $217,195 in the fourth quarter of ’08 to $204,359 last year.

Year over year, the greater Piedmont realized a 10.5 percent increase in home sales, according to the VAR, with 1,719 homes sold in 2009, compared to 1,555 in 2008. As for median sales price, the area saw a 15.7 percent decrease — from $239,921 in 2008 to $202,177 in 2009.

Warrenton-based real estate broker Julie Emery, who writes a blog on local market conditions, predicted Culpeper and Fauquier counties would see “small increases” in home prices in 2010 — about 5 to 8 percent.

“Just don’t expect to get back to 2005 prices for a long, long time!” she wrote at realtown.com.

As of Jan. 12, Culpeper County had seven months of housing inventory, Emery said, calling it “a balanced market.” Fauquier is at nine months while Rappahannock has 16 months, she said.

Emery predicted inventories in Culpeper and Fauquier would continue to shrink in 2010. She also expected the majority of the year’s sales would be short sales wherein banks accept less for a property than the original mortgage amount.

“The big unknown this year in my mind is what the buyers will do,” Emery said, noting it would all depend on how much the employment situation improves. “I’m not optimistic about the jobs outlook, and I think buyers remain relatively scarce. Look for the volume of transactions to be flat in 2010, and it wouldn’t surprise me if there’s actually a small decline.”

Overall, she felt 2010 would be “another year of trying to get solid ground underneath the real estate market. It will be another year of slow, painful climbing out of the ugly market we’ve had.”

One of the byproducts of that ugly market was continued high levels of foreclosure last year. According to the VAR, the greater Piedmont experienced 2,322 foreclosures in 2009.

And yet now is the time to buy, said VAR President Cindy Stackhouse of Dumfries.

“Mortgage rates won’t stay this low forever,” she said. “The tax credit for first-time and trade-up buyers ends this spring, and inventory is dropping.”

All but the Northern region of Virginia showed double-digit increases in sales in the fourth quarter over last year, according to the VAR. Southwest Virginia led the state in sales with a 54.7 percent jump over the same quarter last year.

Real estate in the greater Piedmont
Home sales
Q4 2008 384
Q4 2009 457
Median price
Q4 2008 $217,195
Q4 2009 $204,359
Home sales total
2008 1,555
2009 1,719
*The greater Piedmont encompasses Culpeper, Fauquier, Madison, Orange, Rappahannock and part of Warren counties. Data provided by the Virginia Association of Realtors.