Predicting the Oscar winners

The 2011 Academy Awards will be handed out this Sunday night, and it’s always fun to try and predict the winners. It’s usually pretty easy because Hollywood is all about buzz and popularity, but they also like to pat themselves on the back for being innovative and politically correct. This year a couple of "special" films throw those factors into the mix once again, so most categories will come down to a close, 50-50 decision.

I will refrain from offering my own choices, and merely guess which ones I think the voters will select. There also isn’t enough room to list all the nominees, so I’ll just stick to my predictions and why. For what it’s worth, the Oscar will go to ...

Best Actor: It’s 50-50 between George Clooney and Jean Dujardin, and whether he deserves it or not, the voters will probably go with Dujardin. Hollywood loves Clooney, but he’s already won a Supporting Oscar by hiding how handsome he is behind a beard and 30 extra pounds, and Dujardin is the star of the town’s new favorite "old fashioned" movie of the year, “The Artist.” They’ll give Clooney one some other year for some other role in which he will no doubt shine. As handsome as he is, he truly is even more talented.

Best Actress: Again, it’s 50-50 between Meryl Streep and Viola Davis, and even though everyone knows Meryl Streep deserves it (there’s no better actress on earth, nor has there ever been one), Hollywood loves to give minorities their long overdue recognition, so Davis will likely win for "The Help," even though it was a pretty standard performance in a very nice but obvious and cliche-filled film. Besides, Streep, like Clooney, will definitely earn another one for some other movie in the not too distant future.

Best Supporting Actor: A no-brainer, Christopher Plummer will win for "Beginners" because he’s never won before, has been around forever, is always great in everything he does, and may never get another real chance. Besides, he was amazing in "The Sound of Music" almost 50 years ago, and hardly anyone today remembers he was even in it.

Best Supporting Actress: Again, a no-brainer, Octavia Spencer will win for "The Help" for pretty much the same reason Viola Davis will, even though Jessica Chastain blew everybody else off the screen in the same movie. And don’t worry, Chastain will also win one of her own someday, maybe even two or three. Mark my word, she’s the next Meryl Streep.

Best Original Screenplay: Michel Hazanavicius will win for "The Artist," because it’s completely new and different, while being old-fashioned and something we’ve seen before all at the same time. Hollywood loves this kind of "artsy" stuff.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash will win for "The Descendants" because, as good as the film is, it may be the only major Oscar it wins.

Best Director: This is the final toss-up between Alexander Payne for "The Descendants" and Hazanavicius for "The Artist," and it completely depends on which way Hollywood decides to go - tried and true, or artsy and different. I suspect they may go the artsy way and give "The Artist" the big sweep - after all, they did it with "Slumdog Millionaire" a few years ago, and that was nowhere near the best movie of the year. But whoever wins this award, it’ll be the setup for the last big one, which will be...

Best Movie: If Payne wins best director, "The Descendants" will win this award, but if Hazanavicius wins best director, "The Artist" will indeed be the big winner of the night by collecting this one as well. I’m kind of betting on "The Artist" because Hollywood can’t resist rewarding this kind of old-fashioned movie making. But trust me, it’ll be one or the other — none of the other nominees will even be in the running.

So there you have it, my 2011 Oscar Picks. Take them for what you will, but just don’t bet any money on them. Yes, I bought stock in Apple at $80 a share, but sold it at $160 — and last week it shot past $500, so that shows you what I know.

Wilkie’s column runs every Wednesday. He lives in Jeffersonton.